The Chinese economy is inherently weak. In fact, the Chinese economy is a giant Ponzi scheme which needs high growth rate to sustain the flimsy structure of bad credits, business failures and imperial ambitions. The confrontation between China’s geopolitical assertiveness and the US is inevitable, the question is not if but when. Trump has finally addressed the problem that no American president before him has dared to address. The US administration can’t afford to forestall confrontation with China forever and now is the fucking time.
Why China can’t withstand the onslaught of a full-scale trade war with US?
– US-China trade balance is severely skewed: U.S. exports to China were $130 billion while imports from China were $506 billion in 2017. The US has a huge leverage against China.
– The U.S. debt to China is $1.19 trillion as of March 2018, about 20% of the $6.3 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. Any significant move of China against US will decrease value of Chinese holding and initiate fall of the Chinese financial pyramid.
– China relies heavily on its arsenal of dirty tricks in the coming cold war with US, the Chinese side takes American patience and indulgence for weakness, yet the current White House administration may still surprise the authoritative rule of Xi Jinping by playing the same playbook. The Communist Party is historical nonsense and Chinese people may respond with dissent if living conditions will deteriorate as a result of trade war.